Monday, April 14, 2008

Climate Change and Papua New Guinea: Some Biological and Geographical Senarios

Global Climate Change can impact countries both positively and negatively in a variety of ways. But for now, I will consider broadly its biological and geographical implications as it relates to Papua New Guinea.

(1) Biological. Whilst it may be subtle in other geographic locations around the world, it can be quite pronounced in some. There may be species of plants and animals uniquely adapted to certain localities in Papua New Guinea that may not be able to migrate quite easily to newer ideal environments as their localities changes in response to the changing prevailing environmental conditions. Consequently, these plants and animal species can easily become extinct. For those plants and animals that are able to migrate, they will most certainly do and can become established in new territories. We may also find an increase in the population of bacteria and other micro organisms progressively from the coastal areas of Papua New Guinea inland upward towards the highland areas in response to increased surface temperatures. As a general note: bacterial activities and population tends to increase in warmer temperatures.

We may also find many new colonies of warmer aquatic life in upland streams and rivers as water temperature increases in response to warmer air and surface temperatures.

(2) Geographical. It is now an accepted fact that sea level is rising globally. The obvious impact of that will be the inundation and drowning of low lying coastal areas and the landward intrusion of saline water, hence contaminating the fresh water tables. Also, the global increase in temperatures has already impacted weather patterns around the world and it has influenced the severity of many weather and climatic events such as the monsoon rainfalls of South-east Asia and the prolonged drought in other parts of the world like the Ethiopia's southern Borena region.

The increase in temperatures means increases in the sea and land surface temperatures. Land and sea surface temperatures affects the air temperature which influences atmospheric pressures and working in concert with the Coriolis effect can influence the intensity and possibly the frequency of severe events such as tropical cyclones. Areas which are already dry can easily become more drier as drought conditions become established through prolonged dry periods.

Papua New Guinea is uniquely placed in the Southern hemisphere and like Australia is also influenced by other climatic events called the El nino and La Nina. It is highly likely that global Climatic change will only increase the severity and magnitude of these natural events.

Furthermore as we experience a global climatic change, the vast areas of high altitude land in Papua New Guinea once uncultivated because of the frosts and cold temperatures, may now become useful agricultural lands. This certainly will be good for the vast population of the highlands areas of Papua New Guinea.

Lastly, as areas of higher altitudes like the highlands of Papua New Guinea, will gets more warmer there will be health implications as I read from the article in the Papua New Guinea National Newspaper today. Below is the article in the Papua New Guinea National Newspaper.

[Article from the Papua New Guinea National Newspaper, Dated: 14th April, 2008]
Climate change poses real threat, says WHO
CLIMATE change has the potential to impact on a big scale on health of people, World Health Organisation representative to Papua New Guinea Dr Eigil Sorensen said.
Dr Sorensen said many lethal global killers like malaria, diarrhoea and malnutrition were sensitive to climatic conditions and together were responsible of three million deaths each year.
“WHO calculates that climate change and variability may already be the cause of an increase in the number of deaths ñ now at more than 150,000 annually ñ from malaria, diarrhoea, malnutrition and injury from floods, with half of those deaths occurring in Asia and the Pacific,” Dr Sorensen said in his speech delivered during the 12th National Health Expo.
He said the health scenario was changing and new challenges such as climate change was emerging which have implications for international public health.
“More and more people are exposed to common diseases such as malaria today than before due to climate change,” Dr Sorensen said.
Rising temperatures and increased rainfalls would result in mosquitoes being found in abundance in cooler climates, he said.
For Papua New Guinea, this could mean that that malaria would be more widespread in the highlands. People currently living in low-risk, or no-risk areas of malaria could in the future be at increased risk of malaria transmission, he said.
Dr Sorensen said the evidence for climate change was now clear and convincing.
“The Earth’s surface has warmed by more than 0.8 oC over the past century and by approximately 0.6 oC in the past three decades.
“This warming has been linked to more extreme weather conditions such as intense floods and droughts, heavier and more frequent storms, and a possible increase in frequency and intensity of the El Nino Southern Oscillation.”
Dr Sorenson said these changes were largely caused by human activities, mainly the burning of fossil fuels releasing carbon dioxide (CO2) that traps heat within the atmosphere.
“These CO2 emissions continue to rise, and climate models project the average surface temperature will rise by 1.1 oC to 6.4 oC over the 21st century if nothing is done about it,” he said.

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